Episode 18 - The Final Console Generation?

Things have certainly changed, haven’t they? It seems like we’re on the brink of a redefining moment in gaming history. There’s one large question to consider: how will this impact gamers? In this episode, Chris and Aaron examine whether we’re currently experiencing the final console generation. Will there be new, full iterations of consoles, or will the PS4 “Neo” and Xbox “Scorpio” become the new standard? How does this contrast with the mobile phone market? Will Sony and Microsoft remain relevant as hardware developers? Let the gamers set the stage for an incredibly important discussion in today’s gaming ecosystem. The gamers also discuss their gaming assignments: Katamari Forever and Super Mario Galaxy 2. Finally, Aaron and Chris give their predictions for the Sony Playstation event coming in September. Will the Neo and Slim be revealed?

  1. BCG Discussion Topic - The Final Console Generation?
    -A comparison for hardware upgrades: Mobile vs. Gaming Consoles:
        -Price
            -Mobile: Makes the most profit at release and decreases over time while cost also decreases
            -Consoles: While revenue is highest at launch, profit is lowest (if existent) and only ever increases if the console is a huge hit with a long cycle time
        -Impact to Customers
            -Mobile: In many cases, all upside. Better pictures, faster processor, new features available immediately. Some accessories have been disrupted by switching charging cables/headphone jacks, but relatively minor relative to cost of the core product
            -Consoles: In many cases, consumer has to start from scratch: New hardware, games, accessories, cables, and potentially additional hardware in the form of new TV to get the "best" experience. Consumer is investing a lot up front in hopes that the games are good 1-2 years from launch
        -Impact to Developers
            -Mobile: Limited developer impact - We've bought may phones and never heard of a developer having to start from scratch and rebuild their app from the ground up to sell to new customers. Developers can take advantage of hardware advances if they choose, but do so with full knowledge of which phone generations will not be compatible.
            -Consoles: Developers have to retool their entire company to support new console generations. Processes that have been developed/optimized over years are often thrown to the side to re-learn a new architecture
        -Impact to Software
            -Mobile: Old apps are still available and new apps get better when developers make the decision to take advantage of new hardware. No net loss, only upside to consumers - stay still or move forward, no moving backwards. Trading in phones is of limited risk (other than having a backup in case new one is broken)
            -Consoles: Increasingly limited backwards compatibility. Gamers should be wary of trading in old consoles for fear of not having good software early in the life of the new console while developers are figuring things out
    -This is really a discussion on the maturation of hardware and slowly reaching that high water mark for performance over time
        -The business model for purpose-built gaming hardware is looking less and less attractive, as mobile and desktop PC operating systems are getting increasingly efficient
            -Multi-core and multi-processor systems are ubiquitous, allowing games to run unfettered by other applications
            -I can play a game, render a video, and listen to music at the same time
        -GPU designs are becoming incredibly powerful, and more games are moving more work to the GPUs to sidestep
        -We used to upgrade hardware to reflect the massive performance improvements achieved year-over-year
        -Nowadays, this isn't really an issue; hardware from years ago still works with all but the latest games on the best settings
    -The huge desire to standardize hardware architectures is finally coming to fruition
        -x86/x64 and ARM architectures are ruling supreme over PowerPC architectures of old
        -This is GREAT for us gamers, because:
            -Multi-platform games are much easier to achieve
                -Easier to develop, easier to "port"
                -Developers keep their tools year-over-year, and don't have to re-develop
                    -Tools get better and better
            -More performance consistency across all platforms
                -Less likely to have one of those "plays awful on X but great on Y" scenarios (e.g. Bayonetta
    -Considering all new hardware will likely be similar, developers are more prone to take risks and develop bigger games
    -This is why Microsoft is really a leader
        -Everyone is making fun of them for the announcement of Scorpio and their Xbox and Windows unification plans
        -This is likely also driving Sony's Playstation Now announcements
        -This is super smart
            -It instantly gives them the biggest install base (PCs + Xbox > PS4)
            -It instantly gives them access to a broad range of PC games
            -They can sell purpose-built Xboxes--which are essentially small form-factor PCs with no bloatware--as long as they like (it's all still a PC)
            -This is really just a genius move to combine like items together, open their aperture, and tackle the market differently
                -Sony will have a hard time competing if Microsoft does this correctly
            -Here's the true: Microsoft doesn't care if you buy their hardware, but they'll make some anyway (because they're cheap)
                -They're in it for the software/licensing/game development
                -If they can get you to use Xbox as a multimedia station, that's even better (remember: they've been doing this with PC/Windows for over a decade)
  2. Game Assignments
    -Last episode's assignments: Chris - Katamari Forever; Aaron - Super Mario Galaxy 2
    -Next episode's assignments: Chris - I am Setsuna; Aaron - Maximo: Army of Zin (PS2)
  3. News
    -Playstation event in New York on September 7th
        -Keep an eye for the first BCG News episode around this time!
        -Will they unveil the Neo? Probably.
        -Will they unveil the PS4 Slim? Definitely.
        -When will each be available?
            -Slim - immediately (we've already seen boxes)
            -Neo - We think March-May 2017
                -No sense in releasing it with the PS VR -- that would be the nail in the coffin for VR (need to keep momentum and excitement here)
                -You can't ask the average person to shell out $800 in one day for a Neo and PS VR
                -Let PS VR have its limelight and follow up next calendar year with Neo
                -This also will beat Microsoft to the punch AND run right up with the Nintendo NX to disrupt sales